As we expected, a sharply divided Federal Communications Commission today passed a new set of rules to curtail the bargaining power of local governments in cable franchise negotiations.

Promoters of the new rules – lead by FCC Chairman Kevin Martin – say they are needed because local governments have a habit of extracting concessions from would-be cable providers in exchange for their use of the public right-of-ways. This is hindering the ability of phone giants such as Verizon and AT&T to offer cable television services, the backers of the new rules say.

Consumers will be the big winners in all this, according to Martin and the other backers of the new rules. New competition from the phone companies and others will drive down cable rates for everyone. Dogs will kiss cats. The world will be a better place.

To help make the case, Martin released a new pricing report showing that rates for basic and expanded cable, which account for about 84 percent of subscribers, rose 5.2 percent in 2004. Over a 10-year period, rates had increased a total of 93 percent, the report said.

We have little doubt that cable rates have been rising at a ridiculous pace for years.

At the same time, we have a great deal of doubt the new franchising rules passed by the FCC today will drive down cable rates – or even slow them down that much.

In fact, we’re willing to bet on it.

Here’s the deal. Now Hear This will bet the three FCC commissioners who voted to approve the new rules that cable rates will be higher one year from now in markets where Verizon and AT&T have introduced new service.

The stakes?

Let’s make it interesting. Should we be correct, the three commissioners will pay us the equivalent of any hike in the typical consumer’s cable bill in those newly-competitive markets. Should rates drop in those markets, we will pay the commissioners the equivalent of any decrease in the typical consumer cable bill in those markets.

Think they will take us up on our offer?

We’re betting they won’t.